Men's Basketball

State Farm MVC Tournament Preview

TOURNAMENT FIRST-GAME MATCHUPS
  • Game 1 -- Bradley and Southern Illinois faced each other in Peoria on Feb. 6-7.  The teams split.
  • Game 2 -- UNI and Illinois State just faced one another this past weekend, and the Panthers won each game, including a double-overtime result on Saturday evening.  The matchup will mark the 17th time league teams played a regular-season finale and met again in their first game of the tournament.  This one, however, marks the first time the teams will have played each other three-straight times.  It’s believed that no pair of MVC teams has played three-straight games against one another in more than 100 years.  In 1919-20, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma faced each other four-straight times.  The Sooners won all four games.  However, the last time an MVC team played the same opponent in three-consecutive games was when Creighton played Oregon in three-straight games in the finals of the 2011 CBI Tournament.
  • Game 3 - Loyola swept each of its possible opponents this year.  The Ramblers will enter the tournament as a Top 25 team, becoming the 18th ranked MVC team to participate in the league’s season-ending championship.
  • Game 4 - Indiana State swept a pair of games against the Aces this year, winning Feb. 14 in Terre Haute and on Feb. 17 in Evansville.
  • Game 5 - Like Loyola, second-seeded Drake swept each of its possible opponents this year, knocking off Illinois State twice in Des Moines, and then beating “travel partner” opponent UNI in a home-and-home series.
  • Game 6 - Missouri State swept Valparaiso in early January, with both games played at Valpo.

Tournament Preview/MVC Notebook (PDF)

No. 1 Seed “Success”
Counting 2020, the top-seeded team at the State Farm MVC Tournament has won the tournament 16 times in 44 tries, and it has happened only nine times in the 30-year history in St. Louis.

History of Top Seed in STL
In 30 previous MVC Tournaments in St. Louis, the No. 1 tournament seed has:
  • 9 - Won the Tournament
  • 11 - Lost in the Semifinals
  • 9 - Lost in the Championship Game
  • 1 - Lost its first game

Tournament Titles, By Seed
1 --    16 (last: Loyola in 2018) | 9 in St. Louis
2 --    16 (last: Wichita State in 2017) | 10 in St. Louis
3 --    7 (last: Indiana State in 2011) | 6 in St. Louis
4 --    3 (last: Bradley in 2020)
5 --    2 (last: Bradley in 2019)

Tournament Titles, By Team
12 -- Creighton
5 -- UNI, Southern Illinois
4 -- BU, Illinois St., Tulsa, Wichita St.
3 -- Indiana State
1 -- Drake, Missouri State, Loyola

Good News for Champs?
In the 44 seasons the league has conducted a post-season tournament (from 1977 through last year), there have been 51 regular-season champions (outright or shared).  Thirty-nine of those 51 teams earned either the AQ or an at-large berth into the NCAA tournament (UNI was the league’s regular-season champion last year and did not win the MVC Tournament.  The 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19.

Top Two Seeds = Semifinals
In the 30 previous MVC Tournaments played in St. Louis, the top two seeds have a combined 57-3 record in their first tournament games.  Last year, the top two seeds (UNI and Loyola) lost their first games.  Third-seeded Indiana State also lost its first game, marking the first time in the history of the tournament that the top three seeds all lost their first games.

Best Pole Position?
Thirty-nine of 44 previous MVC tournament champions were seeded 1, 2, or 3.  The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have had the most success, combining for 32 titles.  Last year, Bradley was the No. 4 seed and defeated No. 7 seed Valpo in the title game.  No seed worse than No. 5 has won the title.

Closest Tournaments?
In the 44 previous years of the MVC Tournament, there have been only two tournaments in which all games were decided by 10 points or fewer (1979 and 1999).  In 1999, the average score differential in the nine games was only 4.56. It remains the only MVC Tournament with two overtime games.  Last year, six of the nine games were decided by 10 points or less.

Three Peat
In league history, only Southern Illinois (1993-94-95) has won three-straight conference tourneys.  Only eight teams have won back-to-back conference tournament titles.  Bradley is looking to join SIU as the only teams in Arch Madness history to win three-straight tourney crowns.

Worst Friday Pole Position?
The sixth-seeded teams have gone a combined 10-30 in tournament games in St. Louis.  Since the league expanded to its current 10-team format in 1997, only one No. 6 seed (UNI in 2019) has won two games (i.e. reached the finals).

Clean Slate
The Missouri Valley Conference played a full 90-game conference schedule (and is the only Division I league to play a full league slate).  The MVC had 32 game-date shifts in league play since Christmas and rescheduled 17 games during the process.
  • Non-Conference Games Permitted:  90
  • Non-Conference Games Scheduled:  68
  • Games Cancelled/Added:  25/24
  • Conference Games Scheduled/Played:  90/90
  • MVC Games Postponed/Rescheduled:  17/17
  • Total Games Moved:  32
  • Games Canceled:  0

How Sweep It Is
Last year, four matchups at the State Farm MVC Tournament paired teams against one another that were involved in a regular-season sweep.  Only one matchup in this year’s tournament’s first six games will feature two teams that split their regular-season series (BU-SIU).

2021 Regular-Season Sweeps
UNI (2-0 vs. Illinois State)
LUC (2-0 vs. Bradley & Southern Illinois)
INS (2-0 vs. Evansville)
DU (2-0 vs. UNI & Illinois State)
MSU (2-0 vs. Valpo)

Loyola Climbs to No. 20
Loyola climbed one spot in the Associated Press poll this week (March 1), and the Ramblers remain 22nd in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll.  The Ramblers have been ranked for 4-straight weeks.  Drake also cracked the Top 25 earlier this season (Feb. 1).  It marks the first time since 2014-15 that two different MVC teams have been ranked by the AP in the same season.

Ranked in Arch Madness (AP)
1979 -- Indiana State (1st)
1982 -- Tulsa (10th)
1983 -- Wichita State (11th)
1984 -- Tulsa (12th)
1985 -- Tulsa (15th)
1986 -- Bradley (11th)
1988 -- Bradley (14th)
2003 -- Creighton (19th)
2004 -- Southern Illinois (15th)
2007 -- Southern Illinois (11th)
2008 -- Drake (20th)
2012 -- Wichita State (15th), Creighton (25th)
2014 -- Wichita State (2nd)
2015 -- Wichita State (8th), UNI (11th)
2016 -- WSU not in AP -- No. 23 in coaches poll
2021 -- Loyola Chicago (20th)

Nothing But NET
Since 1992, all 51 MVC teams with a Selection Sunday RPI/NET rating of 50 or better have reached post-season play (37 of those 51 have played in the NCAAs; 14 made the NIT.)  Loyola (16) and Drake (42) are tops in the MVC this season, thru Feb. 28.   In 2019, North Carolina State was the highest NET-rated team to not qualify for the NCAA Tournament (33 NET, NC SOS: 353). Belmont (47), Temple (56), Arizona State (63), and St. John’s (73) all made the field as at-large selections in 2019.  Missouri State (21 RPI in 2006) remains the highest metric-rated team to be excluded.

Inside the NET
Notably, Drake’s 5-1 Q1+Q2 win percentage of .833 ranks 4th-best in the nation (among teams with a minimum five Q1+Q2 total victories).

NCAA Q1+Q2 Win Pct. Leaders (thru 2/27)
Gonzaga (12-0)    1.000
Michigan (12-1)    .923
Baylor (8-1)    .889
Drake (5-1)    .833

We Meet Again?
In the 30-year history of the tournament in St. Louis, teams have played a regular-season finale and then met in both teams’ first game of the State Farm MVC Tournament 16 times.  In the 16 previous occurrences, the team that has won the regular-season finale won the rematch 11 times.

Alma Mater Coaches
Only 35 Division I men’s coaches are leading their alma maters, including two in the MVC (Dan Muller at Illinois State and Bryan Mullins at Southern Illinois).  Three other MVC coaches played at another MVC school (Dana Ford of Missouri State played at Illinois State; Darian DeVries of Drake played at UNI; Porter Moser of Loyola played at then-member Creighton.  Moser was also a head coach previously at Illinois State).  In MVC history, there have been 8 head coaches to lead their alma maters.

Other MVC Coaching Tidbits
• Only MVC coach to win MVC Tournament as a player and coach:  Chris Lowery (SIU/SIU), Porter Moser (CU/LUC)
• Only MVC coaches to win MVC Tournament as a player and reach title game as a coach:  Chris Lowery (SIU), Dan Muller (ILS), Porter Moser (CU/LUC)
• Only MVC coaches to reach title game of MVC Tournament as a player and coach:  Chris Lowery (SIU), Dan Muller (ILS), Jim Les (BRAD), Porter Moser (CU/LUC)
• Only MVC coaches to win MVC Tournament as a player and later become head coach for a team in the MVC:  Chris Lowery (SIU/SIU), Paul Lusk (SIU/MSU), Porter Moser (CU/ILS-LUC), Dan Muller (ILS/ILS), Kevin McKenna (CU/INS), Bryan Mullins (SIU/SIU)

Ramblers Tops in KenPom
Loyola leads the Missouri Valley Conference with its No. 11 rating in KenPom (Drake is second at 53.)  Notably, the Ramblers were rated 31 in KenPom the year they advanced to the NCAA Final Four (2018). The Ramblers’ defense rates No. 1 nationally in KenPom’s metrics.  (Their Final Four team in 2018 finished at No. 17 in KenPom.)  Eighteen previous MVC teams in the past 20 seasons have finished the year in KenPom’s Top 30.  All but one earned an NCAA Tournament berth [the only one not to was Wichita State 2011, and the Shockers won the NIT that year.]  And all but four of those previous 18 teams won at least one post-season game.  The combined post-season record of those 18 teams:  27-17.

Top MVC KenPom Ratings (Since 2002)
6 -- Wichita State (2014) -- NCAA (1-1)
8 -- Wichita State (2017) -- NCAA (1-1)
11 -- Loyola (2021) -- TBD
11 -- Wichita State (2012) -- NCAA (0-1)
13 -- Wichita State (2015) -- NCAA (2-1)
13 -- Wichita State (2016) -- NCAA (2-1)
15 -- Creighton (2013) -- NCAA (1-1)
16 -- Southern Illinois (2007) -- NCAA (2-1)
17 -- Drake (2008) -- NCAA (0-1)
17 -- Wichita State (2013) -- NCAA (4-1)
18 -- UNI (2015) -- NCAA (1-1)
25 -- Bradley (2006) -- NCAA (2-1)
26 -- Creighton (2003) -- NCAA (0-1)
26 -- Wichita State (2006) -- NCAA (2-1)
27 -- UNI (2010) -- NCAA (2-1)
27 -- Wichita State (2011) -- NIT Champs (5-0)
28 -- Creighton (2007) -- NCAA (0-1)
28 -- Creighton (2012) -- NCAA (1-1)
29 -- Southern Illinois (2005) -- NCAA (1-1)

For the Ages
Evansville is the ‘oldest’ team in the Missouri Valley Conference, as its roster has an average of 21.60 (through 2/28/2021).  Drake, however, leads the league in average age by its “Top 7,” as defined by the most total minutes played.  That Top 7 for Drake has an average age of 22.66.

Drake’s Historic Start
 In the league’s 114-year history, a total of six MVC men’s basketball teams, including Drake this year, have started a season with 18-straight wins. In the three previous 18-0 MVC starts since World War II -- all three reached the NCAA Tournament, and two advanced to the NCAA Final Four. Drake’s previous best start to a season was 8-0 in 1970-71.

Homecourt Advantage?
Home teams were 19-20 in the first game of a the league’s two-game back-to-back scheduling model and 25-14 in the second game.  MVC teams were 50-40 (.556) record at home in league play.  That home winning percentage was 19th among conferences.  It’s the worst home winning percentage by MVC teams in league play since at least 1975-76.  Notably the MVC led the nation last year with a 64-26 record (71.1 percent) at home in league play, and the league has been in the Top 6 in each of the past three seasons (home record in league play).  This year, Valley men’s teams were 34-2 (94.4 pct.) at home against non-league teams -- the best in the MVC since at least 1975-76.

Aces’ Turnaround
Last year, UE was 0-18 in league play, and the Aces finished this season at 7-11.  Only one previous team in MVC history has followed a winless season with more than six conference wins the following year.  Southern Illinois was 0-16 in league play in 1980-81 and then went 7-9 in MVC play in 1981-82.   

Strong Shooting
Loyola, which has led the league in FG percentage for an MVC-record four-straight years, leads the Conference in that category again this year.  The Ramblers rank 4th nationally.  Drake is 10th.

National Leader
Loyola leads the nation in scoring defense, surrendering just 55.7 points per game.  That figure ranks as the third-best in the MVC since 1990.

Scoring Defense - MVC Leaders (Since 1970)
1. UNI (2014-15) [NCAA:  1-1]    54.6
2. UNI (2009-10) [NCAA:  2-1]    55.1
3. Loyola Chicago (2020-21)    55.7
4. Southern Illinois (2006-07) [NCAA:  2-1]    56.2
5. Southern Illinois (2005-06) [NCAA:  0-1]    56.5

Defending the Shot
Since 2010, every team but one that has led the MVC in FG percentage defense has earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  (Loyola was third in the MVC in that statistic in 2018 and represented the league in the NCAAs.)  Loyola’s current 40.7 percent figure leads the MVC and ranks 43rd nationally.  Only two MVC teams since 1980 (when defensive field goal percentage leaders were tracked by the Conference) have led the league in both field goal percentage AND field goal percentage defense (Evansville, 1995; Wichita State, 2004).